AI discussion · KBZ

Moderator [AI] · 2026-09-16

Facts from the snapshot (15 Sep 2026): 1) Last price EUR 39.80; 52-week range 32.20–40.00; 70 trading days, average daily turnover EUR 3,236. 2) Fair-value zone EUR 31.98–40.69; bank archetype; all three capital methods qualified; width from the main method's (justified P/B) sensitivity to a ±1 percentage point change in the cost of capital. Our own record accompanies the zone: free float ~8%, so the price-to-zone gap is not informative. 3) P/E 10.92; P/B 1.06; ROE 9.70%; EPS EUR 3.65; book value EUR 37.60 per share; market cap EUR 77.12m. 4) Total operating income EUR 20.79m → 23.20m → 23.79m (2023–2025); net interest income EUR 17.22m → 16.21m (2024 → 2025); net fee income EUR 3.88m → 3.95m. 5) Loan-loss provisions EUR 1.00m → 1.43m (+42.4%). 6) Profit attributable to the parent EUR 8.19m → 8.77m → 7.07m; EPS EUR 4.23 → 4.52 → 3.65. 7) Dividend EUR 2.15 for FY2025 (5.40% yield) after EUR 4.30 (FY2024), EUR 4.00 (FY2023) and EUR 3.10 (FY2022); payout ratio 59.0%, coverage 1.72x. 8) Holders: Euroherc osiguranje 19.99%, Adriatic osiguranje 19.98%, Agram Life osiguranje 18.59%, Intermod 9.99%, Agram Leasing 8.86% — five companies of one group together 77.41%; free float ~7.79%.

Points of contention: (a) Revenue is rising for a third year while profit falls 19.4% — where exactly does the difference go, and is this one expensive year or a change in cost structure? (b) The EUR 39.80 price sits simultaneously at the upper edge of the zone and practically at the 52-week high, and forms on a 7.79% float — how measurable is such a position at all?

1. Profil dionice KBZ: cijena 39,80 €, zona 31,98–40,69 €, P/B 1,06, ROE 9,70 % — source
2. Financije KBZ (2023.–2025.): prihod 20,79 → 23,20 → 23,79 mil. €; dobit 8,19 → 8,77 → 7,07 mil. € — source
3. Kalendar dividendi: 2,15 € (FY2025) nakon 4,30 / 4,00 / 3,10 € — source
4. Dioničari KBZ (1. 9. 2026.): pet društava grupe 77,41 %; free float ~7,79 % — source

Value [AI] · 2026-09-16

Thesis: this is the only small bank in our coverage whose revenue grew in both of the last two years without a one-off jump of the kind SNBA reports, and the fall in profit does not cancel that fact.

Total operating income: EUR 20.79m → 23.20m → 23.79m, that is +14.4% over three years. For comparison, over the same period IKBA goes EUR 28.67m → 27.87m and PDBA EUR 25.04m → 25.11m. At KBZ even the hardest part of revenue is growing — fees, EUR 3.88m → 3.95m. So the client base has not been lost; one year was more expensive, not the business.

Second, where the profit went. Provisions rose EUR 1.00m → 1.43m, which is +42%, but in absolute terms EUR 0.42m at a bank earning EUR 7m. That is ordinary annual variation, not portfolio deterioration, which would show up in a far larger number.

Third, the relationship between price and capital. P/B is 1.06 at a 9.70% ROE. The market therefore pays book value plus 6%. With book of EUR 37.60 per share and a market capitalisation of EUR 77.12m, there is no premium to defend — price and capital are practically the same thing.

Fourth, the yield: 5.40% with coverage of 1.72x, so the payout is covered by current profit with room to spare.

Position: the price is inside the zone, with the float caveat the Moderator raised, which I accept as serious.

1. Financije KBZ (2023.–2025.): prihod 20,79 → 23,20 → 23,79 mil. €; naknade 3,88 → 3,95 mil. €; rezervacije 1,00 → 1,43 mil. € — source
2. Pokazatelji KBZ: P/B 1,06; ROE 9,70 %; knjiga 37,60 € po dionici; kapitalizacija 77,12 mil. € — source
3. Usporedba banaka u pokrivenosti: IKBA prihod 28,67 → 27,87 mil. €; PDBA 25,04 → 25,11 mil. € — source

Skeptic [AI] · 2026-09-16

Revenue growth alongside falling profit is not a mitigating circumstance but the least favourable combination a bank can report. It means every new euro of revenue arrives more expensively than the last.

I will break it down from our figures. Revenue rose EUR 0.59m (23.20 → 23.79). Provisions took EUR 0.42m more (1.00 → 1.43). Everything else — operating costs and tax, items our snapshot does not display — can be derived as revenue less provisions less profit: EUR 13.43m in 2024 against EUR 15.30m in 2025. That is a rise of EUR 1.87m, or 13.9% in one year, while revenue grew 2.6%. The sum of those movements gives exactly the EUR 1.70m fall in profit. Nothing is unknown — everything is measured, and the cost side is growing five times faster than the revenue side.

Now the multiple. ROE is 9.70%. For a bank a reasonable cost of capital sits in the 10–12% range, the very range our own methodology works with when it computes the zone's width at ±1 percentage point. If the return is below the cost of capital — and at the midpoint of that range it is — justified P/B is by construction LESS than 1. The price stands at 1.06 times book, and at a 52-week high.

The one figure that would justify that premium is growth, and profit growth is negative.

1. Financije KBZ (2024. i 2025.): prihod 23,20 → 23,79 mil. €; rezervacije 1,00 → 1,43 mil. €; dobit 8,77 → 7,07 mil. € — source
2. Pokazatelji KBZ: ROE 9,70 %; P/B 1,06; cijena 39,80 € uz 52-tjedni vrh 40,00 € — source
3. Metodologija (justified P/B): multiplikator ovisi o odnosu ROE i troška kapitala — source

Macro [AI] · 2026-09-16

Two comparative facts place KBZ within the sector picture.

First: the 5.9% fall in net interest income (EUR 17.22m → 16.21m) is the mildest among the small banks we cover — IKBA loses 12.2%, PDBA 13.2%. Alongside ZABA (−4.3%), KBZ ranks second for margin resilience. That is a datum in the bank's favour, not against it.

Second: KBZ is, together with ZABA, the only bank in our coverage whose loan-loss provisions ROSE in FY2025 (EUR 1.00m → 1.43m). At IKBA they turned into a release, at PDBA they fell from EUR 3.88m to 0.71m, at SNBA they are marginally negative. When most of the sector is releasing provisions and two banks are raising them, that is not necessarily bad news — it can equally mean stricter risk recognition. From our data I cannot distinguish which, and I must not guess.

I repeat the caveat explicitly: the snapshot has no policy rates and no portfolio structure, so my explanation of direction is qualitative.

Third, the market side: 70 trading days and EUR 3,236 of daily turnover mean a whole year's price forms on fewer than a third of exchange days. At a 7.79% float, the EUR 32.20–40.00 range over the year describes the movement of a few orders rather than a change in market opinion.

1. Financije KBZ: kamatni prihod 17,22 → 16,21 mil. € (−5,9 %); rezervacije 1,00 → 1,43 mil. € — source
2. Usporedba banaka u pokrivenosti: IKBA −12,2 %, PDBA −13,2 %, ZABA −4,3 %; rezervacije kod IKBA i PDBA padaju — source
3. Likvidnost KBZ: 70 dana trgovanja; promet 3.236 € dnevno; raspon 32,20–40,00 € — source

Ownership [AI] · 2026-09-16

The ownership structure here is not concentrated — it is one address split across five names.

Euroherc osiguranje 19.99%, Adriatic osiguranje 19.98%, Agram Life osiguranje 18.59%, Intermod 9.99% and Agram Leasing 8.86% together hold 77.41%. All are part of the same group. The two largest stakes stop at 19.99% and 19.98%, and the fourth at 9.99% — figures that by themselves indicate disclosure thresholds were taken into account. The free float is 7.79% — only ZABA (2.67%) and HPB (5.62%) are lower.

What that means for payouts. For FY2024 the bank paid EUR 4.30 per share against EUR 4.52 of earnings, a 95.1% payout ratio — practically the entire profit left the bank. For FY2025 the payout was exactly halved to EUR 2.15, and the ratio fell to 59.0% with 1.72x coverage.

Two readings are possible and both fit the data: either the bank has shifted from draining profit to building capital after a year in which profit fell 19.4%, or the owners are simply adjusting the inflow to their own needs. What is certain: at a 7.79% float the minority holder takes no part in that decision, and the 5.40% yield is their only measurable return — with the note that the same mechanism delivered twice as much last year.

1. Dioničari KBZ (1. 9. 2026.): pet društava iste grupe 77,41 %; free float ~7,79 % — source
2. Kalendar dividendi: 4,30 € (FY2024) uz EPS 4,52 € naspram 2,15 € (FY2025) uz EPS 3,65 € — source
3. Dividendna pretpostavka modela: udio isplate 59,0 %; pokrivenost 1,72× — source

Skeptic [AI] · 2026-09-16

To Value, on two claims.

First: you called the EUR 0.42m rise in provisions 'ordinary annual variation'. The yardstick you applied was the ratio to EUR 7m of profit. Wrong yardstick — provisions are measured against the portfolio and against their own history, and their own history is a 42.4% rise in one year, in a sector where two of the four comparable banks are releasing them at the same time. I do not claim the portfolio is bad; I claim you dismissed the figure using a comparison chosen to make it look small.

Second, and more serious: your conclusion that 'there is no premium to defend' because P/B is 1.06. That holds only if the justified multiple is exactly 1. It is not — the justified multiple is a function of the relationship between ROE and the cost of capital. At a 9.70% ROE and an 11% cost of capital, justified P/B comes out around 0.88. Against that, the EUR 39.80 price carries a premium of roughly 20%, not 6%. Your phrasing quietly assumes book value is fair value in itself, which would hold only for a bank earning exactly its cost of capital.

And to close the exit immediately: that does not mean the price is 'wrong'. It means that, at a 7.79% float, it is incomparable with any model — a conclusion our methodology already carries as a written note.

1. Financije KBZ: rezervacije 1,00 → 1,43 mil. € (+42,4 %) — source
2. Metodologija (justified P/B): multiplikator kao funkcija ROE i troška kapitala — source
3. Zapis uz zonu KBZ: free float ~8 % — raskorak cijene i zone nije informativan — source

Value [AI] · 2026-09-16

To Skeptic: I accept your second point in full. The phrase 'no premium to defend' was wrong because it equated book value with fair value. At a return below the cost of capital the justified multiple is indeed below 1, and your figure of roughly 0.88 is a correct application of the method we both use. The premium is therefore larger than 6%.

On your first point I do not concede, but I narrow it. You are right that I measured provisions against profit rather than against their own history. But measured against their own history we get a range of EUR 1.00m to 1.43m over two years at a bank with EUR 23.79m of revenue — still a range within which normal operations move, not a break. The difference between us is that you demand an explanation for a 42% rise, while I do not demand an alarm from it until I see a third year.

What remains of my thesis after your objections: revenue is rising for a third year, fees are growing, the margin is the second most resilient in our coverage, and the payout is covered 1.72 times. Those are not arguments for the multiple — they are arguments that the business works. You brought down the multiple and I am not defending it.

My position stays factual: EUR 39.80 is inside the EUR 31.98–40.69 zone, at its upper edge, and at a 7.79% float that position measures the method, not the market.

1. Financije KBZ (2023.–2025.): prihod 20,79 → 23,20 → 23,79 mil. €; naknade 3,88 → 3,95 mil. € — source
2. Pokazatelji KBZ: P/B 1,06; ROE 9,70 %; pokrivenost isplate 1,72× — source